Money Stuff: SpaceX Investors Can’t Complain

TAM, lawsuits, DMs, TCI, eBay. View in browser com/s/c/BGUMP7PK7r6vDjsUMEkDkp4MlVF7kpzbVh5WPCD0dxcV78wokjp57pE4mH4N09W2ufkwqU3pw9NHzIW0JMb6kOSDNuuS_PYRgyVTQ3OyOCKXvOP9vTt8VjkaMwrUsdhUV8Z_FQUhl6IJXu-bzmqNVw1pXqHveQBN78efOfPyGaMF8WX7eT7jVhQd_2JfzEw5yXlbdF7v5NAQROovXD2Pgx_xMz1y4DT_8BZoOIKFMSQRJVgho49uLpT9bN3LmCtwpSap5k-e59dupzTEHR_aLKoBs07--k63FJy8QQmqKfkrYACexdr-6ovcXTPUQGfshjzha0pZY69EN5h6GnZdEKXC3ms9C6xN7izt_mEiUAMf1PyFmty9b7u3xg/VHFdeunW_A2m6wriDEF1YGPxZ9LSRadz/20> [image: Bloomberg] com/s/c/cBompPG8_MoBhrdsgEKBCTKKi67uDxS8w74hIaku2InoD_1pzmV2B3B2bp8Re3eNpwz-gpmjpPUl6GuMhOBuht0vgZdFEpKt7AwSa-_FVOT_CtEyMOtTjgvnXHnjccegzHhNFohwOmW47ZmWXIQCMfX5MMU6ACA7bzyGa5ZFeLfL7wDAGbWOe1STXC0tQT38l2XxIp9tpcWFF06u6CbY4quPSuffhGiPC0QUxZiSdAzKifOQemm2-iTavvhvJS1wJqcv_Lw9sGuYj2Cje4YXRtERY8vKjs_M87d5_PBwaYbZxUbQh53-ohq1jigjnIgp20vBLFIzCGMxIwDMLcHpVlEw4J1Z_EOskvSSCisdZeL8Angp1c6dKmX_dQ/2SW8q-Kz6o-Sqb60h5_bSE_dAIbdA75s/20> com/s/c/GQ1mUdpZG2UxC0EOe2cxWsc0jpiIodxrmyJ9msj6f6Od_W1YOCJkJDyuu9WNQr2Yee7j-Ohdenqy9fzxJ7mebOfBjGXVSUbUxDeXUifEVeqyiUrLCxG4LB6JpmGs_lEtb8FbmSKNp7SvNxh-8kPWUSlNRewqSRXjX6UBnTqM2C68Mn2XiQci1gV_MZfJhaIuUc1_Xk0Rx3pPtS1DFeHkySzjJy1aoZA5Ckg4yyoWfbgIcUQFQtuAUjVekGK7hPuZYiZh5VZCwhu71NxDtDISA-eDuY2Gg_a-Dme57QRggYUbVOdE8hcG3kivJHpSaINcj5J7xpoq4sbNZdPUOa0NuSXCWQlMyvp61Zn21S-LNVac2c66X1LENV9oq0sN4IEZMisdPC7U9ZMQKws1iRJ3J2lvNSP6lntrbmfBK1Bs8tVrhGrXvYI0kICNCmpX3Bos1Du6_JEkP3T-uxADltBhFkpA7tf0ZgZQAACtvaK92fJa61FgNPjVpt_UUR_iNbpFj7kq2RpU8IHDD7jOj0JCXmCDtuZdN0uajZ64yLQYfHOtL2JTC4oqHVvqOMC_0kF3nyZ1mAEPP-KB4W52QvyNDXRduCAKEmHHT2J2CcLGSj3Nnm8XbTcXZjw_9mkMymphheE009gZr5bDVoi-6iRdE-eu8Gtemc3TFlGHS4kP3UfK0MPJUFRnDBEQPvWXmtPZQu-O7Oismyh3HoM/bXbRfRw9_G4Q5zBd02z_sP-yrzxb4Dgv/20> com/s/c/z-bg9GWpy1SvNJZHZVPYoAjh0kQ65MIGCoVu9U2LBMYkmZkkvHHImwZWk2Tdo8MTCdN-hbFYDHN9mjLCmO2JW7dXX59axy-uiYqmibhmV-VNwFBGOyybKcTi4-0DbfX23rSP9LAXep3p32vDx2SFdVIPXf2gc--Jsbe5S08t-DWcT1qRJj0ivekbhLrQnV2LRIj8jhiaZMTdibNaH4DuVmTre1rUhG5-2PoSaPEQMfLqSln85XtbIi0UIuMjh9vuR99NCMaFM1wXEjbYQn11wyv7q4F-FcTqa5RCpJVhF9XT1zBsaT_WNgV-Bnd62GPMGBSRWrvA0yIztwWl671P9tZk4nh0PNC9mrnCe2K7Tuo4hMQCba3ULLhRGg_xRIAnKXqDw8kzPBRImKx0zw_QMeGKI370oyFw9Dkjz51cU-C9rH3f7gDPLpwe9bmEyKeCD2hGK0b3Vu7PtBBJyMJZM53WVcMN3vK3WfNArMdV4R0jCaW9q2Yzu0G69gi6EQmoaZmcEwl1xPX6WuzAivb-54jyzfNXRdR0B-j5GZRcO-oIpa-PeP5rbALcY5WePb-9nnmwjV3vabGBKUkX-X2jvJXHXNa_2TwrLSC-XK8Av07DUv9RBkC0a025A8F6zIiuMj8ke_20hg9CfPVj5Eap_UzYg7R6WSbV2JcY6FPGkUFOz_RlUx0hmE1s14IqecQfEdTAIKybFL9ak4k/OIqoetk_sLlhETyQradjXeZoa6rL9r_A/20> SpaceX: TAM “We believe we have identified the largest actionable total addressable market (‘TAM’) in human history,” says the prospectus for SpaceX’s initial public offering com/s/c/NSbT7WEbRfXguDrXYNaBDuu8x3CFTHNODr57ZvwOaViI2hUC_h8B7iurZitps8VRwcwHJA_h54430MXLt25_nwWL0EA_VTp-yYKtpU3qnMsgtagVfuSvX3EQT3B2F3YfvjtD9Vu7ygkjpNLd2qIWF4XxW_Z6V8gZXtLEKO8zi2J_3ZDtbPEn5vB7tEXD1IFBMxKOAeADJm22xHlPkbnDVsP343CfXqhAmnaICkKtQWfuHQ73OCalA3m51WBkcLuvrxOkqcrrTKzMphPiQJvOU4i8bfwIIh3bB9WrLp0oECXCPQ0AUb5KK6zpMDmwfgTM6PGL8mSgANJlkD0xzQ5VPSDpTXSQkxqiiajV4js7Op4vtncOJnTy5lXhUg/TDV50MzCe2iD2s2RUKnv-ld3kq8tp9fz/20>, and, duh, of course. Every other company in human history has had essentially the same business model, which is “we will sell goods or services to people on Earth for ” The upper bound on every company’s TAM has been something like the number of people on Earth times the amount of money they can spend, the gross domestic product of the Earth.

SpaceX has much higher ambitions. “Our mission,” it says, “is to build the systems and technologies necessary to make life multiplanetary, to understand the true nature of the universe, and to extend the light of consciousness to the ” The upper bound on SpaceX’s TAM is the gross domestic product of *the universe*. Elon Musk is going to make humanity a multiplanetary species, and then we’re really cooking. Why sell goods and services to a few billion people crammed onto Earth, when you can sell goods and services to a few trillion people spread among the stars?

“We believe that our current space efforts will catalyze transformative breakthroughs that could reshape terrestrial industries and lead to the emergence of new trillion-dollar markets on the Moon, Mars, and beyond,” says the prospectus. Every other company is stuck in our dreary modern reality, but SpaceX operates in a *Star Trek *universe with obviously larger economic potential. [1] <#m_5208210554805681538_footnote-1> I’m sort of kidding. Here is SpaceX’s actual description of its total addressable market [2] <#m_5208210554805681538_footnote-2>: We estimate that our quantifiable TAM is $28.5 trillion, consisting of $370 billion in Space from space-enabled solutions; $1.6 trillion in Connectivity across $870 billion in Starlink Broadband and $740 billion in Starlink Mobile as well as additional opportunities in enterprise and government; $26.5 trillion in AI across $2.4 trillion in AI infrastructure, $760 billion in consumer subscriptions, $600 billion in digital advertising, and $22.7 trillion in enterprise applications.

For illustrative purposes of sizing our addressable market opportunity, we exclude China and Russia from our global estimates. The entirety of SpaceX’s estimated market for “space-enabled solutions” is about half of that for “consumer subscriptions” to AI chatbots. Substantially all — 79.6% — of SpaceX’s total addressable market is for enterprise AI applications. SpaceX looks around at the economic possibilities of extending the light of consciousness to the stars and thinks “we’re gonna build tools to automate spreadsheets and sell them to investment ” No no no, Elon Musk doesn’t think that. Elon Musk wants to shoot rockets into space and so forth.

(Though, also, he is personally selling the spreadsheet tools com/s/c/alOxxn7AYqxfnF4723BarlVZ1rq5MUV2fWIYr9fUhF6mjloZTBlG80ptGN_flr2czx4Ov6yLHmRpm2A_2rSL9Lvz23_h1LvNhiKDwHslANzjp3DR8H8dbyO_OHitR-d6bvrid1uRh70JPp4YSocFvCxpI7TQSZRcQT-TOLFBOpZlUznnDshK2tsgzJr9EnNj4e8N7rYFE82qHIT4NFwmzHInNjTbieV2B1IYFylt0Y0-YnLK1tKVKqA3jZ5f98vVPKRLwPPbIpoz0mUNnOGChcO4APMWRSjfnraQLlxV7f8vWZ3OBGvmOFJS0s7O9MqXPeOz_r8HJxDKXZYhETU8EdQWIqSkmJW8exiF4c6phs-dvGBml4BfrEGzaQ/YQE4Q4mhhEi3qGEvlnLpSKmySHV1ZU5w/20> to banks.) The prospectus begins with a bunch of color illustrations of rocket launches and Mars colonies seen from space. Musk’s pay package is contingent on establishing “a permanent human colony on Mars with at least one million inhabitants,” absolutely straight-faced *Star Trek *stuff. There is a tension here. SpaceX was, until February, Musk’s space company; then it merged with xAI, Musk’s artificial intelligence company. Now it is both. (Data centers in space!) More specifically: - It *makes *most of its money from space, or really from satellite internet.

In the first quarter of 2026, SpaceX had revenue of $4,694 million, of which $3,257 million came from its Connectivity segment (Starlink internet), $619 million from Space (rocket launches) and $818 million (17%) from AI. [3] <#m_5208210554805681538_footnote-3> - It *spends *most of its money on AI: The AI segment had a first-quarter loss of $2,469 million and capital expenditure of $7,723 million, three times as much capex as in Space and Connectivity combined. - Its *long-term *aspirations are obviously interplanetary and science fictional. - Its *short-term *economic aspirations seem pretty AI-driven. When SpaceX merged with xAI in February, I wrote that

com/s/c/PZ34hG3Kvcupb0KWCVoKY4hZTNWDYwE8GEyp89dtPG1nodHVfH5_QABknD2_bRi2R5rsaZHncMxozIjkqxmfEVV6Fbl5rc2UuIXGiNTVljliGxXIu0Pg07WbEfC1LjYeZ34Xju6WZm04jvuNCjXeTtvHTolq6oslGjAQPuuy2IwEI2Hxssu3zt_QEoI3ueGNhtOAlTSE7xHQHuIJVbhCRnEFBpUhAZB0XVC9is1dCyzRUaMOGWlGW4E9Eh-pJm0lXnkt4bX9ri9qIL87PhVnDt_duUbLZXO7lthlKAAmspLvz52WuTqL_qV0rdNmvjMosxphbdi81BNt8UfG1pZ0tGklXI0m0OyCctLJNa8XP4LTLybJmUritELEy7w/Oja9qDzLkS7xIlwnVy-HNOs2GcKcF_HK/20> the rationale was “let’s use our space rocket business to subsidize our website’s data centers,” and that is more or less what is happening: The satellite business brings in money and the AI business spends it. But I also wrote com/s/c/V-KvNrSVB-sVkL-vnRBNXCJJMSHMkmiq2YGm9NIb-NWy1mujqYnNYKlf6QR4YJwT7TinPNMIJTGKfwdFe6GqSxv0rR4ltQkY_9bSwg4DGHo0uXWVoabqhlYKNj3pmmDt4m9aT179wZ4WEab3u9sBM4sPbvaD5p-HmnLEhMfiN9v0IqgH6PnqPzvsAFCcV-esfjAoeqwpjMMwdxxp2ts6-Yf_-ALTxTnbjDTcNPhKmSEjflbmFzDmvNas-TaiYXqQqmD-F14YphdkDvejyzHY5CxiVwb_-rfZ3F1AX2UPCmR_Clk0vXS29PfvZzYiJe9Ua526kEbH0VcWviBgcmfpEXNuSdIpDsFOsL3THHKI-M89MKtWsDFmspKwc7E/5aAz11HxGOy6HxnioWLdUGY02AeJcvip/20>: Chatbots today, intergalactic colonization tomorrow. In 3026 our nth-great-grandchildren will encounter a race of intelligent aliens in a distant galaxy, and the aliens will be like “how did you get here,” and our descendants will say “well it started with some slop feeds com/s/c/SNFEHjunL9YJmpDT_PDY7CKp7jZdGo-4v0UA_ujHtao8Md99jDWYdlzac02IN_25DYZ4WJTPlWHncld2tUZ3-jpI1KQ73Z41qlMMl7RnbXlrjoHZDYQ5W1-PvP49wWhud2Wa2PHLZ9LpM7nFM-Dt3pTe9nlOvLXMw6PzqQp6wFmzhYWIrhaltJo1j23BZg_kP8IQTJN2UiP1N3MkQeMgPxnPwWuoNotpQiUSuhLRd3B5W-GyLuk6qSp_bJvZSHQC4iCqBY9NeFu-MbSZEN_SskQGQxu1j4gWjLQWOL3zudC3-RwJmo-crPQH9337jH1S2Xg2I_GrDAIKtmzfVK4UaDCqRoJYooYxQii4woo87tF9E9F6fE6vpT8csMY/bUq5j6jWo24-dJE750n0IDowVebDVxLN/20>” and the aliens will be like ” Lots of very smart people have had high-minded ideas about intergalactic travel for centuries, but perhaps it will turn out that a critical step in getting there is building an app to generate short-form pornographic video on demand.

The two things reinforce each other. You use satellite revenue to build data centers to sell enterprise AI applications, and then you use enterprise AI revenue to build your Mars colonies. You are selling both a long-term vision of intergalactic colonization, and also a medium-term vision of the revolutionary economic potential of AI. SpaceX is selling dreams, and it has a dream for every stage of the timeline.